Education-key
to Master the 4th Industrial Revolution
Published In University News, Vol. 56, No.45, November 05-11, 2018
The Fourth Industrial
Revolution (4IR), characterized by the fusion of technologies blurring lines
inter se the physical, digital, and biological spheres and collectively
referred to as cyber-physical system1 has been fast embracing the world. This
new industrial revolution can offer an opportunity to leapfrog rapid
development and growth in the ensuing decades, if our education system would
endeavor to master the capabilities needed to adapt this technology shift in
the offing. It may also pose an equally formidable challenge, if our education
system would fail to tide over this massive, irreversible and long-term
disruption cycle of the 4IR. Indeed, this new industrial revolution is
unfolding multiple challenges of breakthroughs in technology including robotics,
artificial intelligence, data science, business informatics, nano-technology,
quantum computing, biotechnology, the Internet of Things (IOT), the Industrial
Internet of Things (IIoT), fifth-generation wireless technologies (5G),
precision drones, additive manufacturing/ 3D printing and fully autonomous
vehicles to necessitate a complete overhaul of our education. According to
Klaus Schwab, the Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, these
emergent technologies are likely to disrupt almost every industry in every
country. The breadth and depth of these changes herald the transformation of
entire system of production, management, and governance2. Moreover, recently
“an Oxford study has estimated that 47% of the jobs in the US, 69% of the jobs in
India and 77% of the jobs in China will not exist in 25 years. This is not mere
conjecture. China’s factories are adding robots faster than they are hiring
people. India’s information technology sector is already witnessing jobless
growth and total employment may have already peaked.”3
We are already on the
threshold of this all pervasive revolution comprising huge advances in
genomics, artificial intelligence, materials and manufacturing technologies,
wherein machines are closing in on human ability, robots are replacing humans
in industries and in homes too, reusable rockets can make space travel and
colonies in space a reality and gene editing can facilitate to create
favourable traits and new life forms. All of these are bound to outdate our
curricula, research and skilling programmes. Only those countries would thrive
with prosperity in the 20s, whose education and research systems would cope up
and master this paradigm shift.
Our current education
system in India has yet to gear up to cope up with all such disruptive changes.
India has earlier as well, suffered de-industrialization in the
post-globalization era in the past quarter century due to our failure to cope
up with the third industrial revolution (3IR), especially the 3.5IR, and have
almost got reduced into a country of assembly lines and toll manufacturer of
spares, for large transnational corporations (TNS) and producers of ‘Made by
India’ products and brands. Most original equipment manufacturers have been
edged out from a broad range of sectors, ranging from small toy manufacturing,
bicycle, automobiles locomotives, telecom hardware of 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G
technologies to the solar panels and peripherals. Even in solar power, where
India is slated to emerge as the 2nd largest solar market in the world in 2018,
83% of the solar panels have to be imported mostly from China. Panels in the
range of Rs 22,229 to Rs 28,385 crores have been imported per annum4. According
to a parliamentary panel, it has costed 2 lac jobs in the country every year due
to the import of solar panels alone from China5. We have miserably failed to
develop affordable technologies for the manufacture of Silicon ingots as well
for thin wafering of the Silicon ingots, needed for making the PV cells and
modules. Same is true with telecom technology wherein we have turned fully
dependent on imports for all 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G telecom hardware. Whereas, we
had been well competitive in the first generation of telecom technology, and
had even successfully experimented the homegrown corDECT technology for 2G,
which was even capable to facilitate concurrent data and voice flows; but,
unfortunately we opted for the European GSM Technology for 2G. China while
depicting techno-nationalistic commitment, endeavored to develop its own TD-LTE
technology, which has captured more than half the global market of the 4G
telecom revolution. While we missed the boat even after developing a very good
homegrown coreDECT technology for 2G mobile telephony much earlier than China.
Even in the mobile handset manufacturing as well, the indigenous value addition
is barely 4-6% in the form of assembling of the handsets.
Now in the next-gen of
the surface mobility as well, within 7-10 years, the fossil-fuel (i.e. petrol
diesel driven) cars would be largely out of roads and the battery driven
electric vehicles and/or hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicles would sweep the
roads and rails. But, we have not begun to develop alternative technologies and
its complete downstream value chains and requisite manufacturing eco system at
the required pace indigenously. The transport minister, Nitin Gadkary has
already announced of banning the sale of fossil fuel (Petrol and diesel) driven
vehicles by 20307. The market for storage batteries alone for the electric
vehicles would be of $ 300 billion8, 3 times that of solar. For zero emission
mobility wherein the cars, buses and trains driven by hydrogen fuel cell are
being launched world over. India has failed to take a call, except one hydrogen
powered bus developed by Tata Motors in collaboration with ISRO and IOC9.
Whether we adopt the battery driven cars or hydrogen fuel cell powered cars,
almost the entire auto ancillary units’ sector, especially the one
manufacturing of engines and engine parts sector is going to die. After
shifting to any alternative energy based mobility with electric or hydrogen
powered vehicles, it would be harder to find petrol stations, engine spares
sector or related trade or any mechanic to fix the fault of around 2000 moving
parts that bedevil the fossil fuel based engines. Self driven cars on demand
may eliminate the practice of owning a car and hence car dealers might begin to
disappear by 2025 and onwards.
Moreover, the all
pervasive Artificial Intelligence (AI), Robotics and Automation would transform
everything from civil construction to manufacturing and from trade to all kinds
of services. But the NITI Aayog has been funded with mere Rs 3,700 crore to
create a focused effort in this area10, which is a petty pigmy amount vis a vis
Chinese or Euro-American endeavors and Japan as well as Korea, Taiwan and
Singapore. Look at the scale of what China has already done which is madly
seeking dominance of global AI industry. China has a plan to create a $150
billion AI industry by 2022. Our universities have to move fast to match
Chinese might in AI, Robotics, data science and automation technologies, drones
etc. Ford in Sanand in Gujarat has replaced 85% of its workers on the shop
floor with robots. Robots have already been developed in China and other
advanced nations for brick masonry, tile fixing, sewage clearance and lot many
tasks. If we would have to import or outsource all AI and robotic solutions
from outside, we would be badly drained out of all our foreign exchange
resources and striped of the employment potential of the new industrial
revolution. To the contrary, if we would build homegrown capacities and export
these AI and robotic solutions to outside world, huge employment would be
generated and a shower of foreign exchange would be received. But, our
universities and even the elite institutes are yet to make a reasonable headway
in data science, AI, robotics, 3D Printing, Machine learning, Internet of
Things, electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell technology etc., especially when
compared with China or any industrialized nation like the US, Germany, Japan,
Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia and so on.
The consequences would
be quite formidable on the defence front as well, if the Chinese (who swallowed
Aksai Chin from us in 1962 and devastated the massive buffer state of Tibet,
captured Aksai Chin from us and are now right on our borders) dominate us in
using digital technology and machine intelligence on our borders. They are well
aggressive in cyber warfare, cyber-security and the use of robots and drones
for warfare. The civilian infrastructure that has been put in place by China is
now being adapted to warfare. For instance, China is the leading manufacturer
of small drones in the world. But by adding machine intelligence and small arms
to these drones, China can change the very nature of warfare (even if you leave
cyber-attacks aside). No wonder if we see a thousand of them coming at us,
powered with AI and their emergent intelligence of crowds like an aggression of
bees from a beehive11. They would be impossible to defend against, like a swarm
of locusts.
Our elite institutes,
universities, including the colleges have to prepare to revamp total education,
including research and the skill imparting endeavor with a futuristic vision.
So, it is high time for our higher education system to integrate Data Science,
Robotics, Automation, 3-D Printing, Internet of Things nanotechnology,
biotechnology, 5-G telecom technology, alternative energy vehicles including
electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell driven vehicles related technologies and
job skills. Chinese universities have been rapidly evolving as places of
powerful and high quality research in all these spheres and as a result they
are also fast emerging as an increasingly important destination for
international students. China is becoming a global economic superpower12 by
virtue of the quality and innovativeness of its education, which is fast
driving huge increase in prosperity of its people. India can catch and overtake
its superpower neighbour by improving the quality and innovativeness of its
higher education.
References
1. "The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means and how to respond". World Economic Forum, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-mean s-and-how-to-respond/
2. Schwab, Klaus (2017) [2016]. The Fourth Industrial Revolution. New York: Crown Publishing Group. ISBN 9781524758875
3. Is India ready for the fourth industrial revolution?,https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/nWG 88na6rgg72 p07vV5tLN/Is-India-ready-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution.html
4. Ibid
5. China accounts for 89% of India's total solar cells imports in 2017-18, https://wap.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/china-accounts-for-89-of-india-s-total-solar-cells-imports-in-2017-18-118080100849_1.html
6. About 2 lakh jobs lost due dumping of Chinese solar panel: Parliament Panel, https://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/about-2-lakh-jobs-lost-due-dumping-of-chinese-solar-panel-parliament-panel/articleshow/65153134.cms
7. Nitin Gadkari Tells Carmakers: Move To Electric Cars Or Be Bulldozed, https://auto.ndtv.com/news/nitin-gadkari-tells-carmakers-move-to-electric-cars-or-be-bulldozed-1747395
8. Govt’s electric vehicle campaign can create $300 billion domestic battery market: NITI Aayog, https://www.livemint.com/Industry/CQjREFzAOvT1XJ9l4UERgM/Move-to-100-electric-vehicles-can-create-300-billion-domes.html
9. India’s first-ever hydrogen fuel cell powered bus by Tata Motors is here! Made in India bus emits only water, https://www.financialexpress.com/auto/car-news/tata-motors-indianoil-corporation-flag-off-countrys-first-hydrogen-fuel-cell-powered-bus/1096895/
10. https://swarajyamag.com/magazine/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-is-upon-us-and-india-may-miss-the-bus-again
11. https://swarajyamag.com/magazine/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-is-upon-us-and-india-may-miss-the-bus-again
12. Vice-Chancellor addresses Times Higher Education’s Asia Universities Summit on how universities can drive the Fourth Industrial Revolution, https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/nr/times-higher-education-asia-universities-summit-1.761693
